Trudeau Is A Disaster

This would end up being 90,000 words if I were to briefly summarize the ways Justin Trudeau has been a disaster for Canada, so I'll keep things simple by talking about how he has been a disaster for the Liberal Party. Right after the Liberals plummeted to third place in 2011, they looked to Justin Trudeau for some much needed rehabilitation. Fast forward to 2019 and the damage inflicted on the Liberal Party seems irreparable. The clown prince has done more damage to the party than two more terms of obscurity would have, following 2011. The Liberals may go on to win another narrow majority in 2019, but don't let that fool you. Canadians are fed up and the Liberals will never regain the seven million votes they earned in 2015.

Just as Liberals were starting to rebound from the SNC-Lavalin scandal, the blackface scandal hit the Liberals like a ton of cinder blocks. Even with Canadian media on their side, Trudeau's government and its clean-up crews were no match against American journalism—just as they were no match against Asian and European news outlets when Justin Trudeau's India trip made international headlines and became a global laughing stock. Complicit and incompetent Canadian journalists were forced to watch their preferred party take a well-deserved beating after spending years quietly sitting on news of Trudeau's history of wearing black make-up and mocking ethnic minorities.

Finally, a barrage of photo and video evidence that managed to stay suppressed for 18 years has come to light, thanks to American journalists. Someone had to do it. After our journalists quietly tried to ignore the blackface debacle, they were left with no choice but to cover Trudeau's most damaging scandal, because of America's wildly free and diverse news market. Had it not been for the real, competent reporting of American and foreign journalists, Justin Trudeau would be polling at 40% and this election would be a washout.

Thanks to Americans, Canadians have been able to get a glimpse of the real Justin Trudeau. As a result, the Liberals have been permanently damaged beyond repair. He's a hypocrite in almost every way possible and our Canadian media would have done everything to hide it. Luckily, Americans care more about the truth than we do, so the Liberal Party's second chance to regain the trust and confidence of Canadians has been blown.

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This was their only chance to prove they aren't the corrupt and out-of-touch party Canadians have come to know from Adscam and the Chretien government's cronyism. Today, Canadians are watching a government dismiss the rule of law, make a mockery of Canada on the world stage and wipe their asses with ethics laws. Meanwhile, taxpayers are being forced to pay more for everything, including groceries and fuel—all while Justin Trudeau spends $215,000 of their money to vacation in the Bahamas, among other things.

All of this sounds familiar and takes us back to the years when Jean Chretien's government misappropriated money and funnelled cash to rich Liberal allies in Quebec, using an elaborate sponsorship scheme we have come to remember as Adscam. Justin Trudeau didn't only go out of his way to protect his rich Liberal friends at SNC-Lavalin, he went out of his way to help his Liberal friends and donors at Irving Shipbuilding by granting them a new shipbuilding contract. You can read more about that here. By comparison, the Trudeau government has outdone the Chretien government in less than four years.

It doesn't even come close to ending there.

The Trudeau government's corruption is beyond measure. If I were to keep going deeper, this would become the length of a novel and you'd be reading this for days. If we were to erase the SNC-Lavalin scandal and the Irving Shipbuilding scandal and the Mark Norman affair, we would still be left with a prime minister and cabinet who have violated ethics rules four times and been found guilty of breaking conflict of interest rules twice by Canada's ethics commissioner. On a scale to measure Liberal corruption, the Trudeau government broke the scale before the end of its first term.

In 2019, Canadians no longer trust Liberals to govern their country. The question now is whether they are willing to trust Conservatives to take the reins. This is where voter turnout comes into play.

The seven million Canadians who voted for the Trudeau government in 2015 will likely shrink in numbers significantly. If they don't move to a different party, they won't vote at all. The only advantage the Trudeau Liberals have going into election night is Jagmeet Singh's weakness. New Democrats have a paralyzing fear of Conservatives and if they think Andrew Scheer has a chance of winning, they'll bite the bullet and vote Liberal—or they'll vote for any party they think will blunt a Conservative victory. However, it's important to note that many NDP voters despise Justin Trudeau almost as much as they despised Stephen Harper.

To NDP voters, Trudeau is a corrupt, pro-capitalist douchebag like Stephen Harper—you would have heard these conversations if you've spent time anywhere near Vancouver or Victoria in the past year. This is why we are seeing a surge in Green Party support across BC and parts of Atlantic Canada. The NDP vote is collapsing, but Justin Trudeau isn't the only beneficiary.

Think about it: Justin Trudeau is so terrible that the Liberal Party is no longer capable of fully capitalizing on the NDP's weaknesses.

In 2019, Justin Trudeau has given Liberals such a bad name that the party has become a kind of pariah in political circles. Even long-time Liberals like Warren Kinsella are jumping ship. Undoubtedly, the traditionally liberal magazine Time has even found itself offended by Trudeau's hypocrisy. Far left fringe magazine, Vice, has been giving Justin Trudeau a rough ride after spending most of 2015 campaigning for him. The Trudeau government has lost three female MPs in the past year, all because of frustrations with their leader. There is a clear rebellion happening within the Liberal Party and it's all because of Justin Trudeau.

Justin Trudeau's leadership has been a disaster for the Liberal Party. As we near election night, these are the things we might see as a result of Trudeau's devastating leadership.

The Rise Of Elizabeth May

Whenever the NDP has a hit a rough patch, the Liberal Party has been there to save the day for socialists. As noted above, Justin Trudeau is so terrible that left-wing voters are seeking new alternatives in 2019. Ever since news of the SNC-Lavalin scandal broke, polls from various different pollsters have consistently shown a surge in Green Party support across Canada. Elizabeth May's ability to perform well in debates—albeit, she is unhinged—has helped propel her beyond an average of 10%. In Trudeau's absence, May was able to go viral on the internet after shaking hands with an invisible Justin at the Maclean's debate. This same kind of wit and chutzpah is what put Jack Layton into official opposition in 2011.

At the moment, Greens are ahead in at least four ridings in British Columbia. If they go on to win those seats, it will be momentous for the Green Party and Elizabeth May. The four ridings in question are historically left-wing, so those seats will come at the expense of both Liberals and New Democrats. Traditionally, during moments of weakness, NDP support has almost always shifted to Liberals in BC.

Not this time.

The Greens are surging in various other parts of Canada as well. Their surge isn't big enough to win seats, but it is big enough to have an impact on NDP and Liberal numbers across the board, meaning that Conservatives could sneak through the middle in some key ridings.

A Liberal Majority Under Low Turnout

It's up to Conservatives and other parties to increase or maintain voter turnout, because the Liberals can't do it. Several factors always end up playing into an election. One of those factors is enthusiasm and faith. When one party, or all parties, lose the enthusiasm or faith of their supporters, fewer people vote.

In cases when one party has the steam sucked out of it by endless scandals, other parties will pick up the broken pieces—as was the case in 2015. In the last election, Liberals sucked up a small margin of disenchanted Conservatives, while Conservatives failed to breed a level of enthusiasm sufficient enough to increase their own turnout. In 2015, Liberals created a groundswell of enthusiasm that increased turnout for themselves. In 2019, the Liberals won't have the steam they had in 2015.

If Andrew Scheer doesn't breed enthusiasm, the Conservative Party might fail to generate enough steam to stop another Liberal majority. In such a case, both Liberals and Conservatives would suffer from low to average voter turnout, creating an overall low turnout. This overall low turnout would help the Liberals more than anyone else.

If only the staunch Liberal and Conservative bases vote on election day, Liberals will win because their base has always been bigger. The other parties will lose if they manage to increase turnout for themselves, because their own bases are still too small to make a major impact.

Without a massive and unprecedented shift on the political landscape, these are the unwritten laws of democracy. Under low overall enthusiasm, the party with the biggest base wins. In this case, the Liberal Party has more registered members than the Conservative Party. That's just a fact.

Even if the Liberals shed one million votes from 2015, they could still pull in 5.9 million votes, putting them just narrowly ahead of Conservatives—if Conservatives pull in their 2011 numbers of 5.8 million.

An Anti-Trudeau Surge

In 2015, a massive surge in anti-Harper sentiments created a surge of enthusiasm among Canada's electorate. The Liberals and Justin Trudeau were mostly responsible for creating a groundswell of anxiety and capitalizing on the hatred Canadians felt for the Conservative leader. If the same kind of sentiment boils over against Trudeau this time, it could be the end of his political career.

Make no mistake, if the Liberals lose this election, Justin Trudeau will have no choice but to resign. His father was able to lose and re-win, but Justin is too far gone to have his father's fortunes. The first Trudeau government didn't even come close to the corruption and tomfoolery of the second. The Liberal Party is currently in a “wait and see” phase and hoping for the best. It's too late to ditch Justin now, but if he loses, they'll throw him to the wolves without a second thought.

Expect Justin Trudeau to become every surviving Liberal MP's scapegoat. They will blame him for the party's stunning collapse and force him into the wilderness like Hillary Clinton. He'll vanish from our sights and eventually re-emerge as a public speaker or university instructor, as well as an author. Once he re-emerges, Liberals will want nothing to do with him. Every time he tries to chime in, they will distance themselves.

He'll be like Sheila Copps.

If the Trudeau government collapses this month, Justin Trudeau will be the opposite of Barack Obama and Stephen Harper—whose parties welcomed them back with open arms as trusted advisors and mouthpieces. Liberals will cast Justin out and pretend they never really liked him, which for many of them is actually true. He'll go down in history as the Liberal Party's Joe Clark. (Clark's 1980 campaign slogan was “Real Change Deserves A Fair Chance”.) A regrettable disaster for his party and the reason for its long term, or permanent, defeat.

A tiny and easily forgotten blemish on Canada's overall history.