There Will Be A Blue Wave

July 1st, 2018 | T. Carter
blue wave 2018

No matter what you are hearing from some excited Republicans and conservatives, the GOP is not really gaining strength leading up to the November mid-terms. Democrats look ready to flood the House and Senate. The only real question is how big the wave will be. The GOP has risen from a severe low in 2017 to a better position, but their support has hit a plateau—not a high enough plateau to deflect a blue flood.

The narrow GOP majority in the Senate (51-49) won't likely change, but the loss of one single seat would bring more deadlock to an already deadlocked Senate. However, the one house of Congress everyone will be watching is the House Of Representatives, which currently breaks down to 235 Republicans and 193 Democrats. On generic ballots, from every private polling company within the past six months, Democrats hold a steady 6% lead over Republicans. The gap has narrowed since December, but the narrowing has ceased dramatically and hit a ceiling.

On the state level, Illinois, Maine and Arizona look ready to replace their GOP governors with Democrats—if the latest polls are to be believed.

The wave doesn't look like it will be the devastating tsunami the Democrats were hoping for, but it will be a wave or a big enough flood to tip the balance. Despite holding a steady 6% lead on a generic ballot, Democrats don't quite have the momentum to blow out enough Republicans to form a strong majority in the House Of Representatives. At best—if there is one—a Democrat majority would be slim and close to a tie. If this happens, the House will face much of the same deadlock as the Senate.

As things stand now, Democrats won't have what they need to throw a bomb into the Trump Administration, even amid the Mueller probe and various nasty headlines about detained children, criminal charges and porn stars. Last November I suggested—what is well known in Democrat circles—that if Democrats win majorities in Congress, Donald Trump will most surely be impeached and possibly convicted:

At this time next year, the entire House Of Representatives and more than 30 Senate seats will be up for grabs in the mid-term elections. If Democrats sweep into a majority in the House, Donald Trump will be impeached for all of the reasons mentioned in Tom Steyer's television ad. If Democrats take a majority in the Senate, Trump could be convicted and removed.

If Trump's Republican enemies survive in the Senate, a slim Democrat majority could be enough to achieve a 65% vote to convict Donald Trump on charges laid by the House Of Representatives.

Tom Steyer's petition to impeach Donald Trump has reached one million as of the moment this is being published. The latest opinion polls (if we trust those) put the Democrats in the lead nationally on a generic ballot. We shouldn't trust CNN polls, but if they do offer any indication of things to come, they show Democrats with a 16% lead over Republicans—54% to 38%.

If CNN's latest poll is correct, there should be some jitters among Republicans. It will take more polls to determine whether Republicans should brace for a stunning defeat next year, but if they do face a stunning defeat, Donald Trump's presidency will be in deep trouble.

Interestingly, as the Mueller probe handed out its first serious criminal charges and as Trump was deceptively attacked for children being separated from their parents at the border, Republican numbers on the generic ballot have not taken a severe hit. In fact, the narrowing of the gap and growth in GOP support began happening in January, as the Mueller probe began diving deeper into Trump's personal affairs and as Stormy Daniels came out with her bizarre attacks and accusations.

None of these events have damaged GOP poll numbers as much as we would have expected.

Even more interesting is the GOP poll numbers following David Hogg's hysterical and misguided attacks on the NRA and Republicans. Rather than cause any kind of serious damage, Hogg's anti-gun hysteria seems to have achieved the opposite, giving Republican support a bump and decreasing the chances of a Democrat majority. Further to that, the NRA has reported a 30% increase in membership since Hogg's tirades began. This has undoubtedly increased the NRA's cashflow, which may also influence Republican turnout in November.  

Unfortunately, even despite all of this, Democrats still hold a 6% advantage going into November. Several theories exist to explain this, depending who you ask. It may be incumbent fatigue, Trump Derangement Syndrome or a combination of constant media attacks and conservative discontent with the Republican establishment. It has also been suggested that a phenomenon called reactance may be pushing normal Americans to lash out:

Trump isn't the moron his opponents think he is, but he isn't the genius his supporters think he is either. Trump is probably more in touch with ordinary Americans than any other politician ever has been, but that doesn't mean he'll win using the same formula in 2020. By then, Americans might be tired of Trumpism and his incessant tweeting. The biggest problem will be Trump's supporters and their ongoing evolution into gross trolls and angry snowflakes. In 2020 and 2018, reactance will play a big part in American democracy and Trump could be at the losing end of it.

Trump won because people like BLM and Antifa were shutting down speeches and rallies. He won because American media was shaming people for having certain opinions and because America's borders were becoming non-existent. Trump won because Obama's supporters spent eight years accusing his opponents of being racists and because Hillary tried to accuse her opponents of being sexist. At some point, reactance was going to kick in and Americans were going to snap.

Fast forward to the future.

By 2020, the people trying to shut down speeches, shame opponents with different opinions and attack anyone who criticizes the president as unpatriotic and un-American will be Trump supporters. It's only 2017 and we've already seen this trend taking shape.

It could be that Americans elected Trump because they were being told what to think and feel by social elitists and media, but that same effect could be happening now on the other side, causing normal Americans to feel that they are—again—being told what to think and feel, but this time by Trump and his supporters.

The reasons for Republicans trailing in polls could be varied, but we should expect the polls to be right. Now is not the time to be dismissive or to think the polls are lying like they were in 2016. As several special elections have shown, Republicans are in trouble—everywhere. Recent GOP losses on the state and federal level are proof that something is brewing in America. Something very dark and ominous is on the horizon for November and unless Republicans and conservatives come together, we will be in for a blue wave unlike anything we have seen in a while. Right now the wave is small, but things could change in the next three months and that tiny wave could turn into a tsunami of epic proportions.

Be vigilant, Republicans. Now is not the time to be complacent.